MORTGAGE RATES HIT 7.45% BECAUSE BOND TRADERS JUST FELT LIKE SELLING

The average 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.45% on Thursday, according to Mortgage News Daily, up 19 basis points from 7.26% the day before and the highest reading since April 2024. Back at the end of February that same rate was 5.99%. Seven months. That is the entire shelf life of a sub 6% mortgage in this economy. The best part is why. Mortgage News Daily COO Matthew Graham said there was no obvious catalyst for the afternoon bond selloff, that explanations require concocting narratives, and that sellers decided to sell, a lot. So the price of the largest purchase of your life moved on a collective mood in the bond pit. The setup underneath it is real enough. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates loosely track, topped 5.1% Wednesday for a 19-year high, then added another 10 basis points Thursday to clear 5.2%, with the Fed hiking last week, oil elevated on the Iran war, and economic data running hot. Freddie Mac also put out a number Thursday morning, 7.03%, its fifth straight weekly rise, but that one averages the previous week, so it was stale before anyone read it. MarketWatch talked to analysts who now say 8% is not an impossibility, a level the daily surveys last printed in 2023. Zillow economist Kara Ng noted the Treasury turmoil is blowing up plans for buyers trying to close out the 2026 season.

Why you should give a shit: Nobody can explain Thursday's selloff, including the people who did it, and yet that shrug is now baked into thirty years of somebody's monthly payment.